Did the First Global Stocktake Successfully Assess Progress Towards the Paris Goals 'in Light of Equity'?

Abstract: The Global Stocktake (GST) is designed to be at the heart of the Paris Agreement's ratcheting mechanism towards achieving the Paris goals. It has a mandate to be conducted ‘in the light of equity’ despite being a collective assessment which does not currently facilitate structured comparison of Parties' contributions. Based on a three-part normative framework, this study assesses the extent to which the first GST concluded in 2023 was successfully conducted ‘in the light of equity’ and what can be learned for its future iterations. By triangulating data from participant observation, a survey, and document analysis it finds that despite significant procedural innovations, the GST does not appear to have integrated equity in a substantial manner across all dimensions. Several possible recommendations emerge, including clarifying the mandate to include individual assessment, and making procedural shifts to increase the chances that these assessments make more significant contributions to equity over time.