Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility Under The COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Vietnam

Abstract : This study investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects stock market volatility in developing countries. Using monthly data on the Vietnamese stock market from March 2011 to December 2024 and employing the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, the author identified significant connections between economic policy uncertainty and other macroeconomic factors and stock market fluctuations. The findings indicate that economic policy uncertainty in Vietnam significantly and positively influences market volatility, implying that a higher level of policy uncertainty leads to higher market fluctuations. Moreover, past market changes, inflation, and the COVID-19 pandemic have also played significant roles in affecting stock market changes in Vietnam. The results underscore the importance of eocnomic policy uncertainty in shaping the dynamics of the Vietnamese stock market, and stress the necessity for transparent and stable policy frameworks to ensure stable market operations. Based on these results, the authors suggest relevant recommendations for policymakers and investors to reduce the unfavorable impact of policy uncertainty on stock market operations and portfolio investments.