D1.1: Scenarios and vulnerabilities related to introducing SF6- free technologies in the grid

This deliverable summarizes the results of two tasks from Work Package 1 (WP1) of the MISSION project: 1. Task 1.1: Scenario definition for the future European power grid 2. Task 1.2: Ensuring grid resilience in the future European power grid As outlined in the MISSION project description, the scope of this report is to describe relevant future scenarios (2030, 2050) and potential vulnerabilities in the European power system, with a focus on the technologies developed in the project and their impact on grid resilience. These technologies include new SF₆-free switchgear for High Voltage AC (HVAC), High Voltage DC (HVDC), and Medium Voltage DC (MVDC) systems. The report provides a system-level context for the MISSION project’s subsequent component development and testing. It explores how Europe’s power system is evolving in response to climate goals and the push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially through the replacement of SF₆-based equipment. Chapter 2 highlights the need for large-scale deployment of renewable energy sources (RES), especially wind and solar, to meet 2050 EU targets. This transition demands extensive grid expansion but also more flexible grids and new operational approaches. HVDC is expected to support long-distancetransmission, with MVDC emerging for urban and offshore use. Applications of superconductivity for power transmission are also discussed. Chapter 3 projects a 40–60% increase in AC circuit breaker (CB) population by 2050 due to system expansion and aging infrastructure. Two strategies for transitioning to an SF6-free circuit breaker population are compared: a gradual “Business as usual” scenario and an accelerated “SF₆-free by 2050” transition. The latter could cut SF₆ emissions by nearly 20% compared to the former but may require up to 75% more CBs if technology rollout is delayed, raising cost and implementation challenges. However, compared to the continued use of SF6, both these strategies are found to reduce the emissions by approximately 60% by the year 2100. Chapter 4 presents a qualitative study of grid resilience considering new switchgear technologies. No specific vulnerabilities were found for the SF₆-free equipment developed in the project. However, broader concerns such as vendor availability, limited TSO experience, and the complexity of HVDC system integration were identified. Risk mitigation strategies include enhanced collaboration, standardization, training, and HVDC CB development. Even with pessimistic assumptions, the grid reliability and resilience impact of new SF₆-free technology is likely to be minimal. In conclusion, the shift to SF₆-free technologies and offshore energy systems involves trade-offs between environmental benefits, costs, and potential risks, but the work in WP1 found no major technical risks to grid reliability or resilience. Ongoing work will further assess economic and environmental implications to support evidence-based decisions by TSOs and policymakers.