Impact of Oil and Non-Oil Exports on Nigeria's Economic Growth

This study assessed the influence of oil exports and exports of non-oil products on Nigeria’s economic growth between 1981 and 2023. The study was anchored on the Two-Gap Model. The study utilised data obtained from the statistics bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and World Development Indicators (WDI). The data analysis methods utilised, included Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test, F-Bounds test, and the ARDL technique. The results showed the presence of long-run relationships among the variables (GDP, oil esports, non-oil exports, and inflation rate), indicating that about 11% of the short-run imbalance is corrected every year. Findings from this research indicated a strong positive effect of oil exports on GDP in the short term and in the long term. Non-oil exports have a strong negative impact on GDP in the long term; however, the impact was insignificant in the short term. This research concludes that exports of oil products positively improves Nigeria’s economic growth especially in the long-term period. Conversely, non-oil exports negatively influence Nigeria’s economic (short term period). The study therefore recommends along with other things, that the government should stabilize and strengthen oil export earnings by investing in upstream oil production and infrastructure, and diversify its non-oil exports by focusing on processed and value-added commodities for increased economic growth.