Examining the Political Disputes Surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Project & the US Foreign Policy Direction in the Greater Horn of Africa, especially Towards Ethiopia and Egypt

The longstanding dispute between Ethiopia, on the one hand, and Egypt and Sudan, on the other hand, over the equitable allocation of the Nile River waters dates back to 2011, when Ethiopia, the upstream state, began the construction of a multimillion-dollar dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Of the two main Nile River tributaries (i.e., the Blue Nile and the White Nile), the Blue Nile, which hosts the GERD project, is the most vital contributor to the Nile waters. The GERD, expected to cost around USD4 billion, is meant for hydroelectricity generation with an expected capacity of 6,000 megawatts (United Nations Security Council) (UNSC) Report, September 15, 2021). Ethiopia argues that the GERD is part of the broader growth agenda to drive industrialization and alleviate energy poverty, dividends which will also accrue to neighbors. Although the Nile is shared by eleven countries within the Greater Horn of Africa region, the GERD dispute is mainly confined to Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. Tensions over potential water scarcity escalated in 2019 when Ethiopia announced that it would, in 2020, begin to fill its 18.4 billion cubic meter GERD reservoir. Sudan and Egypt argued that the GERD poses a threat to their agricultural peasants, who largely depend on the stable flow of the Nile waters. This study critically examines the political intrigues surrounding the GERD disputes using a realist international relations (IR) theoretical conception of foreign policy as a framework of analysis of state behavior vis-à-vis national interest pursuits. In particular, the study examines whether the involvement of the US as a mediator in this matter has eased or exacerbated the tensions. The GERD disputes could have ripple effects that cut across the Greater Horn of Africa region on human security. The study recommends that a sustainable solution to this challenge should be channeled through local conflict management institutions because such a position aligns with the aims and vision of the African Renaissance agenda. This agenda (a homegrown program) seeks to promote Africa’s growth and security using local solutions, rather than relying on foreign mediations that often transition into foreign meddling in local affairs. Data for this study were gathered through document analysis and online descriptive analyses of literature on the geopolitics of the Greater Horn of Africa region.