Navigating Pakistan's Export Future: Forecasting Trends Using ARIMA

This study aims to forecast Pakistan's exports from 2024 to 2030 using historical data from 1990 to 2023. The data is providing a comprehensive view of Pakistan’s export trends. The Box-Jenkins methodology was employed, utilizing the ARIMA model for time series forecasting. Prior to modeling, a unit root test was conducted to assess stationarity, which revealed that the export data was non-stationary at its level but became stationary after first differencing. The ARIMA model forecasts an initial increase in exports in the next two years, followed by a decline from 2026 to 2030. This trend is attributed to factors such as global demand fluctuations, rising production costs, and potential domestic challenges. Policy recommendations are provided to mitigate the trade deficit and enhance export competitiveness, including diversification of export sectors, improving trade infrastructure and implementing energy reforms.