Production Risk of Input and Technical Efficiency for Boro-Rice Production in Dumuria Upazila, Khulna: A Stochastic Frontier Modeling Approach

Rice is the foremost food crop in Bangladesh. Like Aman and Aus varieties, Boro rice also grows leaps and bounds in the country. The production of Boro rice during the dry season is welcomed as increasing use of irrigation in the country is expected to raise Boro rice production to achieve food self-sufficiency. This study investigates whether the marginal production risk of inputs is positive or negative and assesses firms' technical efficiency as a function of input levels in Boro rice production in Dumuria Upazila, Khulna, using a stochastic frontier modeling approach. Recognizing the importance of Boro rice in Bangladesh's agricultural sector, the study aims to evaluate how various inputs influence both efficiency and production risk among local farmers. Data was collected from a sample of 120 farmers in Dumuria through a structured questionnaire, capturing input costs such as labor, fertilizer, seeds, and irrigation, along with socio-economic characteristics. The stochastic frontier model, utilizing the Cobb-Douglas production function, was employed to assess technical efficiency scores and to identify significant inputs contributing to production variability. Findings reveal an average technical efficiency score of 0.82, indicating that farmers could potentially increase production by optimizing input use. Seed cost, land size, ploughing cost, and irrigation are highlighted as primary contributors to output variability, suggesting a need for targeted management to minimize risk. The study concludes with recommendations for policy and agricultural extension services to improve input management, particularly for small-scale farmers, to enhance production stability and efficiency in Boro rice cultivation in the Khulna region.