Discovering scenario storylines to inform planning in complex systems

This presentaton was made as part of the Women Advancing River Research seminar series, on February 2025. The talk discusses complex human-natural systems and introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”). FRNSIC uses hierarchical classification to identify key storylines within broad scenario ensembles. We demonstrate FRNSIC's application to the Upper Colorado River Basin, examining decadal drought impacts on water users and downstream deliveries, showing how it can guide adaptive management and adaptation analysis.