DENGUE AND SOCIAL VULNERABILITY IN THE FEDERAL DISTRICT: A HISTORICAL STUDY AND THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE PEAK OF CASES IN 2024

Social vulnerability and sanitation conditions are known to influence the incidence of dengue in various regions of the world. However, the literature lacks empirical and analytical studies that quantify the influence of different variables and indices related to social vulnerability and basic sanitation on the variability of dengue cases in Brazil. The main objective of this study is to investigate the association between dengue incidence and social vulnerability indicators in the administrative regions of Brazil’s Federal District (DF) in the first months of 2024 and in the historical series. A statistical analysis of the correlations between dengue incidence and social vulnerability of the administrative regions of the Federal District is made, measured through four dimensions of indicators: Infrastructure and Environment, Human Capital, Income and Labor, and Housing. The analysis covers the historical period from 2010 to 2020, as well as comparing the average incidence of dengue in this interval with the spatial distribution observed in the initial months of 2024, an atypical period that recorded high rates across the country. The results confirm a strong correlation (r = 0.7) between dengue incidence and social vulnerability indices in the Federal District, especially the Human Capital indicator. There was also a slight change in spatial distribution in 2024, where areas of high vulnerability recorded both increases and decreases in the number of cases compared to the historical record, while regions of lower vulnerability showed, on average, a reduction in incidence during the critical months of 2024. These results quantitatively reinforce the understanding of dengue as a disease that disproportionately affects the most vulnerable populations and highlight the urgency of public policies aimed at improving social conditions in the most impacted regions.