Is a New Wave of International Terrorism Starting from Afghanistan or Syria?

The declaration of a ‘Global war on terror’ marked the most obvious but by no means the only response to the rise in international terrorism. But, Five years after the Islamic State lost its "caliphate," an enduring defeat has yet to be achieved. IS (Islamic State) has diminished, yet it remains a threat, with increased activity in various regions compared to the past. Notably, IS-K (Islamic State in Khorasan) operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia exemplify this persistence. Meanwhile, on a different front, the Syrian rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS- which broke ties with al-Qa‘ida) has emerged as a formidable force. In a surprising offensive in November 2024, HTS seized control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, encountering minimal resistance from government forces. Long dominant in the country's northwest, HTS’s sudden capture of Aleppo stunned observers, including the group’s own leadership. Since then, HTS has advanced further south toward Damascus, igniting conflict in several towns and cities across Syria. However, as HTS celebrates its swift territorial gains, the group now faces the daunting challenge of holding these newly acquired areas. According to Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst on jihadism at the International Crisis Group, the Syrian army, bolstered by Russian and Iranian support, is preparing a counteroffensive. Governing and defending these territories will likely prove far more challenging for HTS and the allied armed factions, raising critical questions about the group's long-term prospects and governance capacity.