APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN THEOREM IN RETROSPECTIVE VALIDATION OF RUBRICS OF NUX VOMICA USING SYNTHESIS REPERTORY.

ABSTRACTBayes' Theorem calculates the likelihood of an event. For diagnostic purposes, conditional probabilityis also helpful in the medical sciences. By following Bayes' theorem, the scientific value ofhomoeopathy can be re-evaluated. Bayes theorem suggests that relative incidence should be usedinstead of absolute occurrence while compiling symptoms to our Materia medica. The Bayes theoremis applicable to both prospective and retrospective research as well as to consensus based on a largenumber of examples. In experience-based systems, like homoeopathy, confirmation bias is asignificant source of erroneous data. This is something that homoeopathic practitioners should beaware of, and long case follow-ups could be able to fix it. However, it may be overcome by analysingrubrics prospectively using likelihood ratio. The absolute grading method of homoeopathic repertoriesposes a significant danger to reliability (LR). Here, we'll go over the literature that has already beenpublished and the work that has been done to validate the rubrics taken from the existing repertoryusing the Bayes theorem.KEYWORDS:Bayes theorem, Bayesian theorem, Homeopathy, Repertory, Synthesis, Validation, Rubric.