Assessing National Risks, Comparative Insights from 18 European Countries. PREVENT Project.

This literature review is submitted as deliverable D2.1 under Work Package 2 (WP2) of the PREVENT project, whichis aimed at building capacity against high-risk criminal networks (HRCNs) in the EU [European Union]: from improvedintelligence picture towards an integrated prevention approach. WP2 focuses specifically on enhancing the identificationof HRCNs, with the aim to improve the intelligence picture on HRCNs by developing an enhanced methodology forassessing the threats and harms related to their operation. The review contributes to that aim by providing a structured and comparative overview of how 18 Europeancountries, mostly EU Member States, assess national risks and by considering the extent to which the countriesaddress risks of organized crime and related threats in those contexts. We intend to shed light on the range ofpossible approaches, including those potentially relevant to organized crime, and to gain insight to how we can betteridentify and assess HRCNs. Thus, the review represents an exercise in exploration and discovery, not critiquing. Forgrounding, the review begins with a general discussion of past and current EU guidance on risk assessment. Theguidance, including detailed guidelines, has evolved substantially over time, starting from an early focus on naturaldisasters and expanding to cover all natural and man-made risks. Then, it presents overviews of the approachesto risk assessment undertaken in each country, especially, but not only, in National Risk Assessments. Each countryprofile is organized in three parts: an overview of authorities and documentation; an overview of the methodology ormethodologies used to assess risks; and a presentation of relevant findings from the country’s assessments, focusingon how organized crime is featured or integrated if at all. The review concludes with preliminary observations onthe similarities and differences in the approaches and some implications for future research on HRCNs.