Analysis of Influencing Factors of Food Trade Network of Countries along the Belt and Road

Abstract— Against the backdrop of globalization, China launched the "Belt and Road" initiative in 2013. Food trade has thus become one of the key areas of cooperation among countries. As a fundamental material guarantee for human survival, the importance of food is self-evident. This paper focuses on the grain trade volumes of the 66 member countries of the BRI at its inception, analyzing the structure and influencing factors of the grain trade network from 2003 to 2022 using network centrality analysis and Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGM). Using the aforementioned methods, this paper draws the following main conclusions: (1) China shifted from being a grain exporter to a grain importer, with a significant disparity between imports and exports. (2) Russia and Turkey played dual roles in the grain trade network, acting as both major exporters/importers and key intermediary countries. India, Russia, and Ukraine were the top grain exporters, while China emerged as the largest grain importer. (3) Variables such as GDP, total population, grain production, and total fertility rate had a significant impact on the trade network of BRI countries before and after 2013.