APPLICATION OF CA- MARKOV CHAIN MODEL IN LANDUSE/LAND COVER PROJECTION IN SOUTHERN PART OF GOMBE, NIGERIA

Human activities such as intensive farming, deforestation, logging, and urban development are significantly impacting land use and cover, posing major environmental sustainability challenges, especially in areas experiencing rapid population growth and urbanization. Based on the status of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) of the reference year 2017 in Southern part of Gombe, this study sought to predict future changes in land use/cover for 2030, 2040 and 2050 projected years with the application of CA-Markov chain model. Kappa index was used to validate the model, and the overall accuracy recorded 93.91%. After calibration and validation of the model, LULC was predicted and the result revealed that rock outcrop was projected to decrease from 337.06sqkm in 2017 to 285.33sqkm, 200.35sqkm and 108.33sqkm in 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Vegetation cover which recorded 1622.07sqkm in 2017 is projected to decrease to 1356.59sqkm, 1032.92sqkm and 707.03sqkm in 2030, 2040 and 2050 while area covered by bare surfaces which was 2210.52sqkm in 2017 is projected to increase to 2513.36sqkm, 2904.42sqkm and 3302.47sqkm for 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Settlement which is 67.56sqkm in 2017 is also projected to increase to 81.63sqkm, 99.22sqkm and 119.08sqkm in 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. In conclusion, the CA-Markov model's accurate projections of future land use and cover changes reveal an alarming trend of declining vegetation and increasing bare surfaces, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable land management such as reforestation, afforestation and other conservation practices to preserve vegetation cover as well as continuous monitoring of LULC changes using advanced remote sensing technologies and modeling techniques.