Production Patterns of Agricultural Crops in Northern Mindanao: A Time Series Analysis Using ARIMA and GRETL

Agriculture is integral to the economic stability and food security of Northern Mindanao, where theregion is recognized as a significant producer of an array of crops such as bananas, young coconut, andmango. The present study utilized the ARIMA model in conjunction with Gretl software to project cropyields from 2024 to 2035, drawing on historical data from the Philippine Statistics Authority. The modelexamined historical trends to anticipate future production, recognizing seasonal patterns and long-termconsistency among key crops. The results indicated stable production trajectories for certain crops, such asmango, whereas others displayed moderate variability. These projections offer practical insights forpolicymakers, farmers, and stakeholders to improve decision-making processes and formulate strategies toalleviate risks linked to yield fluctuations. The recommendations are in the following ways: integratingforecast data into the agricultural planning processes, including additional variables into the subsequentresearch, and developing data-driven initiatives that increase the farm resilience of the region