Rwanda Energy Demand Analysis in Households; An end-use sector demand analysis

Rwanda is undergoing rapid demographic and structural transformation, with the number of households expected to double by 2050 and urbanization projected to rise from 27% to 66.5%. These changes present both challenges and opportunities for shaping the country’s household energy future. This study analysed household final energy demand under three scenarios to understand how socio-economic, technological and policy pathways could influence future energy use. The findings revealed that under the Energy Efficiency scenario, household energy demand could decrease substantially despite population growth, driven by a major shift toward clean and efficient energy sources. By 2050, the share of traditional fuels in household energy demand could decline from 96.7% to 17.2%, while electricity and substitutable could increase their combined share from 3% to 70% and urban areas lead in clean energy adoption, however, rural areas continue to lag behind, highlighting the need for inclusive and targeted interventions. The study underscores the environmental and economic benefits of accelerating the transition to modern energy, to realize these outcomes, the report recommends a set of achievable actions including the full implementation of Rwanda’s Integrated clean cooking plan, expansion of rural energy infrastructure, integration of urban development policies and strengthening of public-private partnerships.