Tracking, Targeting, and Transforming: Quantifying and Closing the Emissions Gap with Integrated Assessment Models

Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) are crucial tools for climate policy analysis but may exhibit limitations in accurately forecasting national technology diffusion and policy impacts. This study evaluates the performance of a prominent global IAM (REMIND, CMIP6/IIASA SSP Database) against India's observed emission intensity trajectory, revealing instances of underestimation due to accelerated solar energy deployment and cost declines. While India is projected to meet its current Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of a forty-five percent emission intensity reduction to its GDP by 2030 (from 2005 levels), achieving a pathway consistent with sustainable development (SSP1) necessitates a more ambitious sixty-one percent reduction. This research underscores the strategic importance of developing sophisticated national-level IAMs to complement global perspectives. A case study utilizing a national IAM framework (MESSAGEix-India-IITK) demonstrates its utility in analyzing investment strategies required to attain significant emission intensity reductions within the power sector, thereby supporting more targeted and effective climate action. Note: Link to the workshop recordings - https://vimeo.com/1084759139/10b0b2c2b4