The Energy Storage Requirement for Decarbonizing Indian Power Sector: Analyzing Emission Cap Scenario through the MESSAGEix-FlexTool

This research investigates the storage requirements for decarbonizing the Indian power sector under various emission cap scenarios, leveraging the MESSAGEix and FLEXtool. Motivated by India's significant power sector emissions and updated Nationally Determined Contributions, including the establishment of the Indian Carbon Market, this study aims to design emission cap trajectories and analyze their impact on the power system. MESSAGEix, a long-term capacity expansion model, is soft-linked with FLEXtool, an hourly optimization tool focusing on flexible generation, demand-side flexibility, and energy storage. Three scenarios were analyzed: Baseline, Moderate Emission Cap, and Aggressive Emission Cap. Results indicate a shift towards renewable energy sources under emission cap scenarios. While initial analysis under the Baseline scenario shows a loss of load between 10-12 TWh, the Moderate Emission Cap scenario, with increased investment in small hydro and pumped storage, reduces this to 1.8-2 TWh. This suggests that investment in storage solutions like pumped hydro and batteries is crucial for enhancing power system flexibility during the transition to a decarbonized grid. These preliminary findings highlight the importance of strategic storage deployment and pave the way for future work focused on establishing a hard link between MESSAGEix and FLEXtool to eliminate loss of load entirely.