Standard Errors of Nonstandard Estimates in the Current Population Survey

Since January 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has produced monthly standard errors for primary Current Population Survey (CPS) labor force estimates using the newly developed GVF (generalized variance function) Production System. In its present form, the GVF Production System computes modeled standard errors for estimates of the following types: levels, or counts; rates, such as the official U.S. unemployment rate; mean and median weeks unemployed; and hourly and weekly earnings percentiles. However, many other CPS labor force series of significant economic interest, such as female-to-male earnings ratios and average hours at work for various demographics, are uncovered by GVF models. In this paper, research models are developed for these "nonstandard" CPS estimates, selected statistical inferences are drawn to evaluate the marginal utility of modeling the variances relative to direct replication, and the potential for implementation into the GVF Production System is discussed.