FINANCING THE PUBLIC FISCAL DEFICIT: IN FACE OF THE SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS IN BOLIVIA

The shortage of foreign currency, especially dollars in Bolivia, is mainly due to the fall in natural gas exports, generating a fall in foreign exchange income and savings and affecting the entire productive community social economic model, leading to a macroeconomic imbalance. In this understanding, this research analyzes and identifies the independent variables that were progressively affected and that all of them are registered and accounted for in foreign currency dollars, such as gas exports, international reserves, external debt, trade balance, foreign remittances and the pension portfolio, to cover the obligations and expenses contemplated in the General State Budget and its fiscal deficit. The latter being our dependent variable. Thus, these variables are studied over the time in which the aforementioned economic model has been applied, i.e., the series sample is from 2006 to 2023. To analyze the data, we will first make the polynomial projections of each of the study variables individually, where we were able to identify cyclical patterns or complex curves with increasing and decreasing trends. Subsequently, we developed a multiple regression, the results obtained were a multiple correlation coefficient of 99.4%, noting that the variables trade balance and the pension portfolio showed negative and significant coefficients and the rest of the variables positive and significant coefficients, except gas exports.