Must VUCA evolve? A thematic literature-based analysis of VUCA research in the pre- and post-COVID-19 eras

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has confronted management with substantial challenges, requiring organizations to respond to dynamic market changes and continuously adapt to a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted this necessity by exposing VUCA concepts to substantial shock. However, whether the COVID-19 pandemic marks a phase of abnormal VUCA characteristics or whether organizations will face different VUCA challenges in the post-COVID-19 era is unclear. We conducted a literature review to synthesize and compare VUCA research before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a trend matrix, we illustrate and specify the evolution of research themes that address VUCA characteristics. We present a VUCA evolution model that reveals a shift toward operational adaptability and continuous learning as key drivers in the post-COVID-19 era, as emphasized by the increased priority of people-centered approaches. The results indicate an organizational transformation toward self-organization that enables resilience through a holistic perspective of continuous learning and co-creation. Our study contributes to understanding organizations’ resilience and bridges the gap between the theoretical and practical VUCA research dimensions. VUCA concepts were not coined with global pandemics in mind but were created to support organizations dealing with crises. We explored how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected VUCA’s conceptual foundations and research focus. Our results orient scholarship toward new foci of VUCA research and assist practitioners in identifying critical areas of focus regarding VUCA challenges in the post-COVID-19 era.