Understanding the Strategic Value of the Assassination of President Juvénal Habyarimana

This article examines the assassination of former Rwandan President Juvénal Habyarimana through the utilization of strategic theory. The President's assassination on the night of April 6, 1994, ignited the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi, which killed up to a million Rwandan Tutsis and non-extremist Hutus within 100 days. While the assassins are still unknown, speculation exists of whether the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) or the former ruling akazu ordered the attack. It concludes that the akazu was the most likely actor behind Habyarimana's assassination, given that the structure of strategic incentives favored its position over the alternatives.