Spatial Factors Influencing Residential Land Price in Dar-es-Salaam City: A Perspective from Sub-Saharan African Urban Land Markets

Context and background Land prices significantly impact urban growth in rapidly urbanizing African cities, driven by economic growth and rural-urban migration. Sub-Saharan African cities face challenges in managing their land markets due to informal land transactions, a lack of timely and comprehensive land price data, and reliance on sporadic surveyed data that lacks spatial factors. Spatial factors influence land parcel attractiveness and price, and this impact varies with context and spatial scale. Goal and Objectives: This study aims to analyze the spatial factors influencing Residential Land Prices (RLP) at the sub-ward level in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania, focusing on spatial non-stationarity relationships. Methodology: The Multi-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model was employed to analyze these relationships, utilizing open data and sub-ward land price data from 2020. Results: Four major factors were identified: proximity to the Central Business District (CBD) and bank density, both exhibiting non-stationary impacts at the local scale; and NightTime Lights (NTL) intensity (a proxy for income and population) and proximity to the coast, both showing stationary impacts at the regional/global scale. These findings highlight the significance of commercial activities, population growth, and coastal proximity in Dar-es-Salaam's land market. The study's insights can guide localized plans, land market management, and policies for sustainable urban development in informal contexts.