Fanning the Flames: The Impact of Targeted Sanctions on Foreign Militant Activity

How do US and UN targeted sanctions impact the behavior and strategies of militant groups? Despite several theories on the use of sanctions to punish non-state actors, scholars have largely neglected the impact of targeted sanction application on militant group behavior. This thesis combines an original dataset of 153 US and UN sanction regimes with data on the activity of over 600 militant groups to examine the relationship between sanction imposition and militant activity. The results show mixed impact of sanctions on militant activity. While UN targeted sanctions precipitate falls in militant activity, unilateral US sanctions are associated with a significant increase in violence committed by sanctioned groups. Comparative analysis of two militant groups in India –The National Democratic Front of Bodoland and Hizbul Mujahideen – explores the causality of this finding. US sanctions strip militant groups of international legitimacy but often fail to limit their availability to resources. As there is no obvious way to get sanctions removed for militants, sanctions reduce militant incentives to lower violence to seek international recognition. This thesis illustrates the limited efficacy of targeted sanctions without multilateral support and the humanitarian consequences that may originate from unilateral sanction imposition.