Skalierung des Recyclings von Materialien für PV-Module: Skaleneffekte und ein europäischer Schrottmarkt

Motivation and central question The mining industry, central to critical raw material (CRM) production, is fraught with substantial financial risks due to high upfront investments, uncertain revenue streams, and rapidly evolving technological and regulatory landscapes. These uncertainties create significant risks in the supply chains of CRMs, particularly those needed for green energy technologies like solar modules. Methodology A potential solution to these supply risks often proposed is the secondary supply from recycling. However, despite its potential, the economic competitiveness of recycling compared to primary supply remains a critical issue. A primary factor hindering the economic feasibility of recycling is the mining industry's ability to exploit economies of scale, which provides cost advantages that recycling currently cannot match at present. In this abstract, we present a comprehensive techno-economic analysis focused on the scaling effects within a future CRM recycling industry. Specifically, we examine the case of solar PV modules, considering different market developments for c-Si, CdTe, and CIGS modules. By varying the market share of these technologies, we aim to assess how these shifts impact the economic scaling of recycling operations and the broader supply chain. Results and Conclusions Our analysis utilizes a techno-economic optimization model to explore the viability of recycling in comparison to primary supply. We hypothesize that economies of scale will be a crucial factor in driving the competitiveness of recycling chains. Preliminary results suggest that the quantities of silicon metal from c-Si PV modules may be insufficient to sustain competitive recycling plants on their own, prompting the need to investigate whether secondary raw material production could benefit from combining multiple CRM sources.