Wave Analysis for Rip Current Forecasting in Southeast North Carolina

Rip currents are one of the deadliest weather related hazards in North Carolina and South Carolina with 101 confirmed rip current drownings in these states from 2000 to 2014. Recent rip current outbreaks highlighted the need to reevaluate the rip current forecast scheme used by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Wilmington, North Carolina. This study examines the local wave characteristics associated with rip current activity at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina from 2009 to 2013. Wave height and direction were found to be the most significant parameters that modulate local rip current activity. An analysis of high-impact days with five or more rip current rescues revealed that the vast majority of these events were associated with significant wave heights of at least 0.7 m and wave directions within ± 10° of shore normal. By identifying the most significant parameters associated with enhanced rip current activity, the local forecast scheme can be modified to improve rip current forecasts.