Diplomatic Breakthrough: Politics, Reform, and Trust in the Restoration of US-Cuba Relations

What explains the re-establishment of US-Cuba relations under President Barack Obama and President Raúl Castro? Conventional wisdom points to public opinion shifts within the Cuban-American community and domestic reform within Cuba. These two factors, while important, are insufficient to account for the re-establishment of US-Cuba relations. This thesis argues that the development of a working trust between Obama and Castro was critical to diplomatic breakthrough. Decades of hostility fueled a deep mistrust between the United States and Cuba. As this thesis details, Obama and Castro communicated a series of cooperative and trust-building signals – aided by Pope Francis and the Catholic Church – that allowed diplomatic breakthrough to emerge.