Prediction of stock prices with automated reinforced learning algorithms

Predicting stock price movements remains a major challenge in time series analysis. Despite extensive research on various machine learning techniques, few models have consistently achieved success in automated stock trading. One of the main challenges in stock price forecasting is that the optimal model changes over time due to market dynamics. This paper aims to predict stock prices using automated reinforcement learning algorithms and to analyse their efficiency compared with conventional methods. We automate DQN models and their variants, known for their adaptability, by continuously retraining them using recent data to capture market dynamics. We demonstrate that our dynamic models improve the accuracy of predicting the directions of various DAX stocks from 50.00% to approximately 60.00%, compared with conventional methods. Additionally, we conclude that dynamic models should be updated in response to shifts rather than at fixed intervals.

Publication Details

Journal
Refubium (Universitätsbibliothek der Freien Universität Berlin)
Published
2024-09-19
DOI
https://doi.org/10.17169/refubium-44888
Primary Topic
Historical Studies of British Isles
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Prediction of stock prices with automated reinforced learning algorithms

Refubium (Universitätsbibliothek der Freien Universität Berlin)
Historical Studies of British Isles
article

Prediction of stock prices with automated reinforced learning algorithms

article en

Abstract

Predicting stock price movements remains a major challenge in time series analysis. Despite extensive research on various machine learning techniques, few models have consistently achieved success in automated stock trading. One of the main challenges in stock price forecasting is that the optimal model changes over time due to market dynamics. This paper aims to predict stock prices using automated reinforcement learning algorithms and to analyse their efficiency compared with conventional methods. We automate DQN models and their variants, known for their adaptability, by continuously retraining them using recent data to capture market dynamics. We demonstrate that our dynamic models improve the accuracy of predicting the directions of various DAX stocks from 50.00% to approximately 60.00%, compared with conventional methods. Additionally, we conclude that dynamic models should be updated in response to shifts rather than at fixed intervals.

Refubium (Universitätsbibliothek der Freien Universität Berlin)
Openalex Percentile: Top 44%
Historical Studies of British Isles
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