A Trojan horse in the last of the wild? Pine trees, agroforestry, and land zoning assemble the landscape resilience dilemma in Patagonia

The resilience of landscapes is increasingly compromised, even in the 'last wild areas', including cool temperate forests at higher latitudes. Deforestation, climate change and natural hazards are endangering biodiversity, carbon-storing soils, landscape identity and, not least, rural or indigenous livelihoods. In some places, attempts are being made to restore the landscape through reforestation. The question is to what extent this measure contributes to landscape resilience in the context of spatial management. In the Chilean Patagonian region of Aysén, for example, forest plantations with exotic tree species and spatial planning with land zoning are intended to ensure landscape resilience. Using a combination of conformance and performance approaches to plan evaluation, we analyse whether this set of instruments can address the risks of biodiversity and soil loss, land-use related natural hazards, and disregard for indigenous risk perceptions. We argue that although regional spatial planning in Aysén is committed to sustainable land use, land zoning is not in line with its environmental objectives of eradicating invasive species, is expected to perform poorly in mitigating erosion and natural hazards, and does not address local risk perceptions. This is particularly evident in the failure to develop the resilience potential that agroforestry practices could offer. The agroforestry concept is used as a land use category in land zoning to promote the expansion of further forest plantations with exotic tree species, which conflicts with local risk perceptions and traditional rural livelihoods. In this way, agroforestry can become a Trojan horse with limited or even counterproductive effects on landscape resilience. Inspired by the polycentric governance paradigm, we propose three alternative strategies: promoting regenerative agriculture with agroforestry under exclusion of exotic tree species, co-creation of risk related land zoning and community forest managment.