Estimates of Fig 3.

<div><p>Over the past three decades, incidental bycatch has been the single most frequent verified cause of death of the endangered Saimaa ringed seal (<i>Pusa hispida saimensis</i>). Spatial and temporal fishing closures have been enforced to mitigate bycatch, which is mainly caused by the gillnets of recreational fishers. In this study, we employed an array of statistical machine learning methods to recognize patterns of death and to evaluate the impacts of annual fishing closures (15<sup>th</sup> April–30<sup>th</sup> June) on the recovery of the Saimaa ringed seal population during 1991–2021. We additionally used the potential biological removal (PBR) procedure to assess bycatch sustainability. The study shows that gillnet restriction areas are reflected in the timing of juvenile bycatch mortality of the Saimaa ringed seal. In the 1990s, peak mortality occurred at the beginning of June, but as the restrictions expanded regionally in the 2000s, the peak shifted to the beginning of July. Longer temporal coverage of annual closures would have improved juvenile survival. The study also shows that estimated bycatch mortality is higher than observed: the estimated bycatch averaged approximately two unobserved bycatches per one observed bycatch. Despite the continuing bycatch mortality, a larger number of juveniles nowadays survive to the age of 15 months due to fishing closures, and the population (some 420 individuals) has increased an average 4% per year between 2017 and 2021. However, human-caused mortality limits (PBR) were exceeded by observed bycatch only, which could lead to population depletion in the long run.</p></div>