Potential Suitable Area Change and Carbon Sequestration Potential of Robinia pseudoacacia Plantation under Climate Change Scenario

［Objective］ Robinia pseudoacacia, as the main afforestation tree species in China, plays an important role in improving the ecological environment and increasing carbon storage to alleviate climate change. This paper predicts the spatial and temporal changes of the suitable area distribution and carbon storage of Robinia pseudoacacia forest under different emission scenarios in the future, and analyzes its carbon sequestration potential, so as to provide scientific basis for regional plantation development planning and sustainable management. ［Methods］ Based on the MaxEnt model, this study predicted the potential suitable area of Robinia pseudoacacia under future climate scenarios, and the potential geographic distribution and area of Robinia pseudoacacia were studied quantitatively in the future. By analyzing the contribution rate of comprehensive environmental factors and the importance of substitution, the influencing factors restricting the potential geographical distribution of Robinia pseudoacacia plantation were clarified. The spatial distribution of carbon storage in 2090 s Robinia pseudoacacia forest was estimated and analyzed by using the volume stand age model and the volume biomass method. ［Results］ 1) Temperature factor was the most critical climatic factor affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas of Robinia pseudoacacia, with a contribution rate of 64.4%, precipitation factor came second. 2) Under the current climatic conditions, the potential suitable areas of Robinia pseudoacacia were mainly distributed in the Yellow River Basin, the Huaihe River Basin and the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and the high suitable areas were mainly distributed in the northern part of China, accounting for about 4.2% of the total land area. Under the future climate change, the concentration of Robinia pseudoacacia loss area will increase under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios, mainly located in the Sichuan Basin. The expansion area was mainly distributed in the surrounding area of the stable zone, showing the characteristics of distribution fragmentation. 3) In the future, the carbon storage and carbon density of Robinia pseudoacacia forest will increase under the four climate scenarios. By 2100, the carbon storage will reach the maximum under the SSP585 scenario. ［Conclusion］ Under the high emission scenario, the medium-high value area of carbon storage moves northwestward and is concentrated in the eastern part of Northwest China.