Analysis and Prediction of Disease Burden due to High BMI in China from 1990 to 2019

Background Obesity is a common metabolic disease that has become a serious public health problem worldwide. In recent decades, with the rapid development of China's economy and the acceleration of globalization and urbanization, the rate of overweight and obesity in China has shown a rapid rise, and it is urgent to carry out the prevention and control of obesity in the whole population. Objective To analyze the status quo and changing trend of disease burden due to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) normalization rate of high BMI in China in the next decade, providing reference for formulating obesity prevention and control strategies in China. Methods The data of DALY number and DALY normalization rate attributed to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the global Burden of Disease database, and the burden of disease due to high BMI in China was analyzed from the aspects of gender, age and the burden of disease attributable to high BMI. Using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to represent the change trend, a grey prediction model GM (1, 1) was established to predict the DALY normalization rate attributed to high BMI in China from 2020 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALY attributable to high BMI in China increased by 225% and 215%, respectively. The standardized mortality rate (EAPC=1.21%, P<0.001) and the standardized DALY rate showed an increasing trend (EAPC=1.41%, P<0.001). The burden of DALY attributed to high BMI and its growth rate was significantly higher in men than in women over the same period. The burden of DALY caused by high BMI increased with the increase of age, and the burden of <5-19 years old increased rapidly, and the increase trend of males at all ages was increasing, and the increase trend of females at 20-54 years old was unstable, and the increase rate was accelerated at 55 years old and above. In 1990 and 2019, the top four diseases with the greatest burden of DALY attributed to high BMI were stroke, ischemic heart disease, diabetes and hypertensive heart disease, and the diseases with rapid increase of DALY normalization rate were mainly tumor and musculoskeletal diseases. The number of DALY caused by high BMI in 2019 accounted for 6.50% of the total number of DALY in 2019, ranking fifth among 69 risk factors. GM (1, 1) forecast shows that the DALY normalization rate of high BMI in China will continue to rise from 2020 to 2030. In 2030, the DALY normalization rate of high BMI in China will be 1 452.52/ 100 000, among which 1 845.81/ 100 000 for males and 1 106.74/ 100 000 for females. Conclusion The burden of diseases caused by high BMI increased significantly in China from 1990 to 2019, and targeted intervention measures should be taken for people of different genders and different age groups, focusing on the prevention of diseases and cancers caused by high BMI. The disease burden of high BMI will increase further in the next decade, and a nationwide community obesity prevention and control effort is urgently needed.