The Trend Prediction of Five Subtypes of Chronic Kidney Disease in China from 2020 to 2040

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a public health problem that cannot be ignored in China and even in the world. At present, relevant studies on the prediction of the incidence trends of different subtypes of chronic kidney disease are rare in China. Objective To predict the incidence trend of five subtypes of CKD in China from 2020 to 2040, and provide reference for the prevention and control of CKD. Methods The age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and cases of five subtypes of CKD in China from 1990 to 2019 were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database (April 2023 to May 2023). The incidence trend of five subtypes of CKD was described and analyzed by the percentage change (%) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC). The Prophet model was used to predict the ASIR and cases of five subtypes of CKD in China from 2020 to 2040. Results From 1990 to 2019, The ASIR and cases of five subtypes of CKD in China showed an upward trend. The upward trend of CKD due to hypertension is the most obvious (AAPC=0.75, P<0.05). In 2019, the ASIR and cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2, diabetes mellitus type 1, glomerulonephritis and hypertension in male were higher than female, while the ASIR and cases of CKD due to other causes in female were higher than male. The cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2, hypertension and other causes is the highest in the age group of 65-74 years old. The cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 1 and glomerulonephritis were mostly concentrated in the age group under 5 years old. The prediction results showed that in 2040, the ASIR and cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2 are 23.27/105 (80%UI=20.64/105-26.08/105) and 755 375 (80%UI=702 827-811 409) respectively, the ASIR and cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 1 are 0.60/105 (80%UI=0.47/105-0.73/105) and 10 625 (80%UI=9 519-11 787) respectively, the ASIR and cases of CKD due to glomerulonephritis were 3.88/105 (80%UI=3.01/105-4.79/105) and 87 050 (80%UI=74 470-100 460) respectively, the ASIR and cases of CKD due to hypertension were 15.35/105 (80%UI=13.53/105-17.29/105) and 470 214 (80%UI=437 598-504 817) respectively, and the ASIR and the CKD due to other causes were 127.68/105 (80%UI=102.41/105-154.68/105) and 3 901 317 (80%UI=3 622 415-4 198 720) respectively. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, The ASIR and cases of five subtypes of CKD in China showed an upward trend. From 2020 to 2040, The ASIR and cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 2, hypertension and other causes in China will still show an upward trend. Though cases of CKD due to diabetes mellitus type 1 and glomerulonephritis will increase year by year, the collective ASIR will show a downward trend. In the future, relevant prevention and control strategies should be developed for different subtypes of CKD.