The Marshmallow Test as a Screening Instrument: Sensitivity and Specificity of a Delay of Gratification Task for Later <scp>ADHD</scp> and Conduct Problems

ABSTRACT Delay of gratification tasks have an impressive predictive value for various outcomes and are designed to measure self‐regulation. Since many behavioural and psychological conditions in children are related to limitations in self‐regulation, the extent to which delay tasks can be used as a screening for the detection of psychopathology is examined. Children from the general population (non‐clinical sample; N = 1498; 51% girls) participated in delay tasks at the ages of 3 and 5. Parents rated ADHD and conduct problems when children were age 5 and 6, which we classified using cut‐offs. Delay at age 3 was related to ADHD at age 5 (OR = 1.84) and conduct at age 6 (OR = 2.61). The results showed high specificity (77%–78%) and high negative predictive values (95%–98%), correctly identifying children below the SDQ cut‐off, but low sensitivity (27%–42%), making the task unsuitable as a screening tool for children with an increased likelihood of developing psychopathology. These results were aggravated when only the first 20 s were considered, showing better specificity but worse sensitivity values.