The effect of temperature on household hourly electricity consumption: evidence from South Africa

Climate change is expected to negatively affect Africa, possibly leading to increased energy needs. However, meeting that need could prove problematic; more than a decade of load-shedding in South Africa is suggestive in that regard. In this research we examine the effect of temperature on electricity consumption, focusing on mainly rural households in South Africa. We apply a series of fixed effects panel models to hourly temperature and electricity consumption data across eight months and 12 locations in the country. We find limited evidence that increased temperatures drive increased electricity use; rather, electricity use increases as temperatures decline, although at temperatures below 10 C, the gradient is approximately level. Given that few of our study's households own cooling or heating appliances, the result is not entirely surprising. However, without such appliances, poor rural households will not be able to cope with rising temperatures.