The Location and Timing of New U.S. Import Entry

I use sub-national U.S. import data to estimate the geographical distribution of the consumer benefits from new import entry. Statistical analysis of the data indicates that imports initially enter one or two customs districts closest to the exporting country, and their participation in the U.S. market is usually short-lived. If import entry is sustained for three or more years, the imports expand to other regions of the United States at a predictable rate. I use data on recent entries of imports from 12 middle income countries to estimate econometric models that forecast this gradual expansion.