Political support in times of progressive policy change and radical-right populist party success

Governments worldwide have to face navigating multiple crises, often requiring political measures that challenge social status quo arrangements. Radical-right populist parties frequently operate as amplifiers of citizens’ status-quo threat perceptions by blaming established political actors, potentially undermining political support and satisfaction with democracy. This study examines how radical-right populist parties and their rhetoric affect political support during progressive policy change, focusing particularly on immigration, climate, and gender equality policies. Moreover, it examines the claim that groups vulnerable to experiencing threat tend in particular to respond with lower political support to progressive policy change, as well as populist rhetoric. Using observational data from West European democracies and experimental evidence from Germany, the study finds that an erosion of political support is particularly strong when progressive policies coincide with radical-right populist party success. Surprisingly, these effects are remarkably universal across societal groups, challenging assumptions that democratic backlash primarily stems from those who feel easily threatened. The findings suggest that radical-right populist rhetoric can effectively catalyse opposition to progressive policies regardless of citizens’ socioeconomic status or ideological orientation.