Investigating the Short-Run and Long -Run Effects of Inflation on Agricultural Sector Performance in Nigeria from 1993–2023

This paper critically investigates the long-run and short-run effects of inflation on agricultural sector performance in Nigeria over the period from 1993 to 2023. The study is motivated by the persistent macroeconomic instability in the country, particularly the volatility of inflation rates, and how such economic dynamics influence a vital sector like agriculture. Specifically, the research was guided by two research questions and one hypothesis aimed at examining the extent to which inflation impacts agricultural output in both the short and long run.Employing an ex post facto research design, the study relies on secondary time series data sourced from relevant national and international statistical agencies. The analytical framework is based on robust econometric techniques, including the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to assess the presence of long-run relationships and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture short-run dynamics.The empirical results reveal that inflation exerts a statistically significant and negative impact on agricultural productivity in the long run, suggesting that sustained increases in the general price level undermine agricultural growth and output. Conversely, the short-run effects of inflation are found to be less consistent—ranging from weakly negative to marginally positive—highlighting the transitional and context-dependent nature of short-term inflationary shocks. These findings underscore the need for effective inflation-targeting policies and macroeconomic stability as a precondition for sustained agricultural development. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at promoting price stability, improving agricultural resilience, and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal interventions in Nigeria’s economic planning.