Turkish soft power in the Erdoğan era: conception, performance and adaptation

Turkish soft power has experienced a decline over the last decade. Although existing studies recognise this and even highlight the role of Turkish soft power as an instrument of cultural diplomacy and foreign policy, the literature review has neglected the assessment of the influence of both the leader's conception and domestic and international changes on Turkish soft power. Given this gap, this article aims to answer the following research question: How did Erdoğan's conception and performance of his role influence the evolution of Turkish soft power from 2013 to 2023? In fact, we consider 2013 to be the starting year for the study, as the Gezi protests highlighted Erdoğan's authoritarianism, denigrating his reputation both nationally and internationally, and representing a turning point in Turkish politics. In turn, the year 2023 coincides with the centenary of the Turkish Republic, while also marking nearly two decades of Erdoğan's uninterrupted rule. The methodology adopted combines the analysis of primary sources - such as official documents, reports and soft power indices - and secondary sources, based on the assumptions of role theory, namely role conception, role expectations, role adaptation and role performance. Despite Erdoğan's investment in increasing the number of Turkish embassies and consulates, strengthening development aid, awarding scholarships and institutes to promote Turkish culture and language abroad, among other things, this has not translated into an improvement in Turkish soft power, as the indicators we consulted corroborate. In practice, external expectations of Erdoğan's role reflect the fact that the aforementioned initiatives have not been able to counter the dissatisfaction felt abroad with the departure from democratic ideals that has accompanied the Turkish leader's consolidation of power.