Modelling the Persistence of Lion Populations in South Africa: An Evolutionary Game Theoretic Approach under Human Demographic Pressure

This study presents a novel, interdisciplinary framework for assessing the long-term viability of lion populations in South Africa amid rising human pressures. By integrating evolutionary game theory and Nash equilibrium into ecological modelling, it captures the strategic interactions between farmers, conservation authorities, and lions, an essential dynamic often overlooked in traditional population models. As human populations expand, land-use conflicts and retaliatory killings increase, posing severe threats to apex predators like lions. This model quantifies how changes in human behaviour, shaped by socioeconomic and policy incentives, impact lion mortality and persistence. The findings offer predictive insights into when lion populations might reach critical thresholds or face extinction if current trends persist. Moreover, the model allows simulation of conservation interventions to test their effectiveness in shifting human behavior toward coexistence. This study supports evidence-based policymaking for sustainable wildlife management and highlights the urgent need for integrated socio-ecological strategies to ensure lion survival in human-dominated landscapes.