Forecasting The Electricity Consumption by Domestic and Industrial Sector in Nepal

Forecasting the electricity consumption is crucial for efficient electricity supply management,strategic energy planning as well as policy formulation. This study had aimed to forecast the electricity consumption in Nepal by household and industrial sector by using the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) method. The study incorporates the historical data from 1975 to 2023 A.D. sourced from Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). and forecast the consumption in both sectors from 2024 to 2033. The study predicts that the sector will continue to experience significant growth in consumption. within the study period the average annual growth rate of consumption in the domestic sector will be 8-9 % while in the industrial sector it will be 10-11%. During the initial years the household sector consumption appears to be higher, but the industrial sector is likely to surpass the domestic sector by 2027.