EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSECTOR'S OUTPUT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: STRUCTURAL VAR (SVAR) MODEL APPROACH.

The agricultural sector in Nigeria had been the main producer of the food needs of the country until the discovery of oil which led to a shift to the oil sector abandoning the sector. This study examined the effect of agricultural subsector’s output on Nigeria’s economic growth. The study used annual time series data spanning the period between 1981 to 2023, and the data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2024). The data were analyzed using the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Findings from the study reveal that the output of crop production has a positive significant impact of 0.4975, forestry has 0.0007 and fishery has a positive and significant impact of 0.0054 on economic growth in Nigeria while output of livestock production has a negative and insignificant impact of -0.0040 on economic growth in Nigeria. Based on the findings, it is recommended that the government should address the challenges often faced by crop farmers such as inadequate irrigation, lack of access to technology, poor soil condition (soil infertility), farmers-herders clashes, and insecurity in Nigeria, in order to provide a conducive environment for farming and increased output. Government should also implement sustainable farming practices such as rotational grazing, intensive livestock production and minimize environmental pollution through proper waste management for increased productivity.