BridgeGap D3.1 Impact of Sanctions on Infiltration of Russia in Europe

The pervasive influence of strategic corruption as a foreign policy tool has emerged as a significant challenge to global governance and democratic resilience in Europe and beyond. Unlike traditional forms of corruption, which are typically limited to personal enrichment or gained political advantages, and lead to administrative inefficiencies, strategic corruption operates as a deliberate tool employed by foreign governments to achieve long-term geopolitical aims. This phenomenon blurs the lines between domestic political dynamics and external influence, creating a multifaceted threat that undermines sovereignty, destabilizes political institutions, and erodes public trust. Understanding this complex mechanism requires an in-depth study of the strategies, actors, and systemic vulnerabilities that enable such malign influence. This report delves into the mechanisms and implications of strategic corruption with a particular focus on its role in facilitating evasion of international sanctions through state capture and reshaping political and economic landscapes in targeted nations. At its core, strategic corruption exploits both individual and institutional corruption, often leveraging cross-border networks, legal loopholes, and governance deficits. The intent is not only to influence high-level decision-making but also to embed malign influence across societal and economic institutions, ensuring prolonged and widespread impact aligned with foreign geopolitical goals. To ground the analysis, this report examines three case studies that illustrate the Kremlin’s deployment of strategic corruption in Europe, used to facilitate sanctions evasion. The first two cases explore the legitimization and construction of the Nord Stream II and Turk Stream gas pipelines, highlighting the interplay of regulatory manipulation, high-level political decision-making, and the role of opaque intermediary networks. The third case addresses the direct circumvention of international sanctions on Russian oil exports, showcasing the adaptability of malign actors in exploiting systemic vulnerabilities under shifting geopolitical conditions. These cases are framed within a conceptual understanding of strategic corruption as a cross-border phenomenon distinct from domestic corruption. By weaponizing individual and institutional corruption, malign actors are able to subvert democratic mechanisms, distort public policy, and exert undue influence over key economic sectors. The report emphasizes the clandestine nature of these activities, which often involve intermediaries such as legal and financial entities, shell companies, and compromised public officials. The Nord Stream II and Turk Stream projects have become pivotal elements of Russia's broader geopolitical strategy, including preparations for military aggression against Ukraine. Both projects demonstrate that, despite sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union since 2014, Russia remains resourceful and adept at infiltrating networks of influence. Through well-known mechanisms - such as corruption, state capture, state-backed investments, and exploiting legal loopholes for sanctions evasion - Russia continues to influence domestic decision-making and secure its strategic interests. While sanctions targeting the Russian energy and financial sectors caused some disruptions, they failed to achieve their broader strategic goal of weakening the Kremlin’s political power and limiting its financial resources, particularly in the energy sector. Gazprom successfully advanced the Turk Stream project, securing financing from Gazprombank and completing the pipeline. This highlights the ineffectiveness of sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent invasion of Ukraine in hindering Russia’s capacity to pursue strategic energy initiatives. The case of Russian crude oil exports further underscores this point. The use of a “shadow fleet,” diverse brokering and strategic services by commodity traders, and regulatory loopholes in the sanctions regime - facilitated by alleged strategic corruption - have collectively enabled the Kremlin to evade sanctions effectively. Through the focused analysis, the report aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of strategic corruption as a critical threat to democratic governance and global stability. By unpacking the mechanisms and consequences of this phenomenon, it seeks to inform both academic and policy research to enhance the sovereignty and integrity of affected states. This deliverable is submitted to the EC and is currently under review.