D2.5 – Open source model for probabilistic human health risk assessment

This is the final report on the Human Health Exposure Assessment model, pending approval from the European Commission.A risk-based human health exposure assessment (HHEA) model was developed to evaluate the exposure for humans in 4 circular economy (CE) routes investigated in 6 of the 7 case studies in the project PROMISCES. The HHEA is a probabilistic tool evaluating the risk posed to human health. The HHEA was applied to the following routes: 1) semi-closed drinking water cycle; 2) groundwater remediation; 3) water reuse for agricultural irrigation; and 4) nutrient recovery. Each of these exposure routes results in a product – drinking water or lettuce – which can be consumed by humans. For some routes, the exposure is purely theoretical, while for others, the entire process chain isinvestigated in the PROMISCES case study. The HHEA is built on Bayesian principles and includes Bayesian updating, which enables assessment of risk under conditions of low data availability and high uncertainty. This is particularly useful for evaluation of substances such as PFAS and other industrial persistent, mobile and potentially toxic (iPMT) substances, the removal of which in treatment processes is not yet well studied in literature. The deliverable explains the different treatments, environmental matrices, and substances which were the focus of the initial assessment. It describes the construction of the HHEA model, with explanations of how different data types – literature data, site specific data, and modelled data – are used to update the prior probability of the removal factor for substances in a process. It also describes how non-technical processes, such as mixing or evaporation, have been included into the treatment trains evaluated. Finally, individual reference quotients for the substances are established, which are used to assess the relative risk of the final concentrations in the products which could be consumed by humans.