Prospective scenarios. Challenges to achieving peace and the strategic role of Ukrainian resources in the upcoming negotiations

The Russian Federation's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 creates a complex geopolitical scenario that indirectly confronts Russia with the powers of the hegemonic West, articulated in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union. By means of a prospective methodology and the collection of documentary sources of proven quality, the objective of the research was to develop, analytically, three prospective scenarios that allow anticipating the possible paths towards the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict, simultaneously evaluating the strategic relevance that Ukraine's natural resources could play as negotiation assets in future peace agreements. The conjugation of the sources with the analytical apparatus of the study allows concluding that, the most plausible scenario, considering the current geopolitical trends, is a variant of the red scenario: protracted conflict with outbreaks of varying intensity until 2028. Factors such as Russian military attrition, Ukrainian resistance and Western donor fatigue point to a dynamic stalemate of belligerent actors, in terms of resources and capabilities for action.