Effectiveness Analysis for Financial Distress Prediction in the Transportation Sector During the Pandemic: A Comparison of the Altman, Zmijewski, And Grover Models

The COVID-19 pandemic that began in March 2020 had a significant impact on the economic sector, including transportation. The Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) Policy and the Enforcement of Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) limited community mobilization, stopped some economic activities, and closed public facilities, thereby reducing business profits. The transportation sector recorded a decrease in operational activities with negative growth of -15.04%. This condition causes the risk of financial distress, which is financial difficulties marked by insufficient company cash to pay debts, which can trigger significant losses up to bankruptcy. This study uses a qualitative method based on the analysis of transportation companies' financial statements for the 2019–2022 period to identify financial distress risks. The three prediction models used are Altman Z-score, Zmijewski, and Grover.