THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY EXPORTS

<p>The study aims to assess the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on manufacturing exports in four postSoviet countries: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus. The theoretical foundation of the study is based on the works of Kojima, Macussen, Helpman, and other scholars who have analyzed the role of FDI in international trade and economic development. Using panel data from 2000 to 2023, regression analysis reveals a negative relationship between FDI and manufacturing exports—a one-percentage-point increase in FDI is associated with a 1.01 percentage point decrease in manufacturing exports.<br>Additionally, the study identifies a significant positive relationship between manufacturing exports and key factors such as gross capital formation (coefficient: 0.94), labor force participation (1.24), and trade openness (0.24).<br>A cross-country analysis highlights different trends. In Georgia, high FDI inflows have not resulted in a proportional increase in manufacturing exports, necessitating further investigation. In Armenia, despite moderate FDI levels, manufacturing exports have grown significantly. In Azerbaijan, periods of high FDI inflows have not coincided with manufacturing export growth. Meanwhile, in Belarus, manufacturing exports remain high despite low FDI levels.<br>The findings suggest that foreign investment in the region is predominantly directed toward non-export sectors, indicating the need for policy adjustments. To enhance manufacturing exports, it is recommended to channel more FDI into export-oriented industries and strengthen local production capacity. The high explanatory power of the model (R² = 0.47) and its statistical significance (F-stat = 10.53) confirm the reliability of the research results.**</p>