Sectoral Big Push Theory Test in Nigeria: A Cobb-Douglas Model

This study examines Rosenstein-Rodan's Big Push Theory in the Nigerian context from 1985 to 2023 as predicated on the Cobb-Douglas production function. The study employed secondary data gotten from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. By analyzing various factors, including government investment, income inequality (GINI), labor utilization, and technology, the study aims to identify the key drivers of growth in the classified real sector of the Nigerian economy and provide practical recommendations for policymakers. Through three econometric models focused on the services, agriculture, and industry sectors. The findings reveal that government investment significantly drives growth across all sectors, supporting the premise of a Big Push, with the services sector showing the strongest positive response. Additionally, the results indicate that income inequality, as measured by the GINI coefficient, adversely affects sectoral growth, underscoring the importance of addressing disparities. These insights emphasize the necessity for targeted investment strategies that not only increase public expenditure but also promote equity. Based on these insights, the study recommends targeted government expenditure, policies to reduce income inequality, investments in human capital, and fostering technological innovation to promote the development of Nigeria's service sector. These measures are crucial for achieving sustainable economic growth and improving living standards in the country.