THE EFFECTS OF THE FIRST DONALD J. TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S MAXIMUM PRESSURE POLICIES ON THE ENERGY POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

Abstract The maximum pressure policies of the first Donald Trump administration against the Islamic Republic of Iran, especially after the unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, had profound effects on the political economy of Iranian energy. This study examines the impact of these policies on Iran’s oil, gas, and renewable energy industries. The findings show that the sanctions imposed since 2018 have caused profound structural changes in the political economy of Iranian energy. In the oil sector, sanctions have led to an 85% reduction in oil revenues (from $119 billion in 2017 to $17 billion in 2022) and a sharp drop in exports from 2.5 million barrels per day to around 0.5 million barrels per day. The gas industry has also faced serious challenges in developing joint fields and exports, with gas exports to Iraq and Turkey falling by around 60%. In contrast, the renewable energy sector It has witnessed relative growth. The installed capacity of renewable energy has increased from 300 MW in 2017 to over 1,000 MW in 2023, and the private sector’s share in this area has reached 40%. Iran’s adaptive strategies have included developing regional cooperation, increasing technological self-reliance, and diversifying export markets. However, fundamental challenges such as aging infrastructure, the need for large-scale investment, and Technological limitations remain.