ASSESSING THE TAXONOMIC IDENTITY, CONSERVATION STATUS, AND DISTRIBUTION MODELLING OF ENDEMIC AND ENDANGERED COUSINIA SPRYGINII KULT. (ASTERACEAE) IN UZBEKISTAN

This study examined the morphological characteristics and conservation status of the endangered endemic plant species Cousinia spryginii. Examination of plant specimens under microscopy generated an illustrated description and enriched written profile of distinguishing morphological features. Field surveys from 2022-2024 recorded two small isolated populations totaling approximately 200 individuals, indicating a significant contraction from historical herbarium records. The Extent of Occurrence was estimated at 397 km2 and Area of Occupancy at 36 km2 based on a 3 km grid, meeting IUCN criteria for Endangered status. Demographic monitoring revealed a low proportion of juvenile plants and high percentage of senescent individuals, suggesting poor regeneration and population decline. Major threats include overgrazing, road/rail damage, and prolonged drought exacerbated by climate change. Species distribution modelling projected a 64-92% reduction in highly suitable habitat by 2070 under different climate change scenarios, with shifts in important environmental variables indicating vulnerability to changing precipitation patterns and temperatures. While six nature reserves are located near the historical range, none contain suitable ecological conditions to support C. spryginii populations. Conservation strategies proposed include establishing protected areas, grazing management, habitat restoration, and education programs to ensure the long-term viability of this rare endemic species in Central Asia.